A recent article in a newspaper, The Economist, highlighted the changes that are happening in New Orleans. The Crescent City is local to Northwest Florida in that its only a four hour drive away and the culture (Mardi Gras for example) and cuisine of the City, and Louisiana in general heavily influence the Northern Gulf Coast. It can be said that Northwest Florida is closer in temperament an culture to NOLA, than it is to the rest of Florida. Orlando, which many international travelers see as ‘Florida’ is after all a six hour drive away and shares little in culture with the Panhandle.
The gist of The Economist article, which you can read HERE, is that the Mayor
An authentic experience?
and administration is attempting clean up the city’s act. New Orleans is famous for (admittedly among many other things) the free wheeling nature of the French Quarter in general and Bourbon Street in particular. Over recent years the French quarter has become a center for Bachelor and Bachelorette parties. Most of these at some stage gravitate towards the bars and music joints along Bourbon Street where they seek out the ‘genuine’ flavor of the old city.
Now the Mayor, understandably, wants to make sure that visitors are both safe and legal. There is a backlash against the cleanup with the slogan ‘Bourbon Street not Sesame Street’. As the article points out, some of the workers in the area question just how illegal the activities actually are and offer the suggestion that by changing the place, people may be put out of work or worse, moved into activities that really are beyond the pale.
Many years ago Bugis Street in Singapore had an equally salacious reputation. During the ‘50s and through to the ‘80s the street was famous for its nightly gatherings of the local transvestite population. It became one of Singapore’s main tourist attractions. Not somewhere one would recommend to your maiden aunt for a visit certainly, but it did contribute much to Singapore’s tourist attraction. Bugis Street is still there but was cleaned up during the ‘80s and ‘90s and is now one of the places famous for low cost clothes and a tourist attraction in in its own, new right.
From a tourism and moral point of view there can be no justification for illegal activities. However is there perhaps a very fine line to be trod between sanitizing and destroying? What would Las Vegas be without gambling for example.
A few years ago New York City decided to make Times Square more family friendly and threw out the dubious bars and entertainments. It doesn’t seem to have affected it’s ability to draw tourists although I would question if the area, particularly in the late evening is a place for visitors of a shall we say, a nervous disposition.
We visit New Orleans frequently and stay in the French Quarter. We walk around the area at night and although we cross Bourbon Street we tend not linger and never visit the bars and music joints. We know they’re there of course and don’t begrudge their patron the thrill of an authentic experience, providing they know what they’re doing and keep their wits about them.
Would a Disneyfied version of the Vieux Carré still be attractive to its patrons? Would a fake Eiffel Tower still draw visitors? I suppose the fake tower in Las Vegas does, but then Vegas has the gambling too……
It’s Fall and so we’ve begun our traveling season. We tend not to escape from the Gulf Coast during the summer months. Yes, it can be hot and humid (although that doesn’t worry us too much) it’s more as Jimmy Buffett would say “You can’t reason with hurricane season”. The tropical wind event season isn’t over yet, but we’ve passed the peak and with forecasting the way it is these days, you seem to have a week or so warning of any tropical unpleasantness.
My chief researcher and frustrated travel agent (Beth, the First Lady) suggested that we escape to the Northern Georgia Mountains, where her family once owned a mountain lodge. The Development chosen is Big Canoe, a huge property about an hour or so north west of Atlanta. A simple seven hour drive from the coast.
We’ve rented properties before and have gone through property management companies and have also become familiar with VRBO and HomeAway. This time Beth found an ideal property through Airbnb. I’ve written about Airbnb in the past and have followed their progress over the years, but we’ve never actually used them.
The search and booking process was simple and very efficient. We were looking for somewhere that was suitable for the two of us and our two Smooth (short haired) Collies. Airbnb matched us up with a great property and the booking was made. As things happened we subsequently received an offer from American Express (who appear to work closely with Airbnb) which resulted in our extending the stay to take advantage of the offer. Yes, advertising obviously works!
As part of the booking we were put in touch with the owners, a charming couple (Cindy & Joe) who also own a bed and breakfast in Gainsville, Florida. Obviously they’re immersed in the hospitality business and their B&B (The Magnolia Plantation – http://www.magnoliabnb.com/ ) looks like its certainly worth a visit. As things transpire, they also own a Collie, so a mutual bond was established. That’s certainly something that can happen easily with the Airbnb type system, and the personal owner/guest relationship is rather more difficult with more traditional ways of renting. It does seem like a beneficial thing.
Simply put, the property is exactly as described and so far the exercise has been great.
While sitting relaxing I was reading an article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution (thanks once again to the Researcher-in-Chief) about how vacation rentals are being challenged in the North Georgia Lakes area. It’s something that appears to be happening in other parts of the USA and the world in general.
In the Georgia Lakes area, the move is being driven by Georgia Power who own most of the land around the lakes. They are invoking clauses in the leases of properties that are offered by the power company. These are usually 15 year renewable contracts, although according to the AJC, some of these properties have been in the leaseholders families for generations. Families have rented out their homes through rental companies and realtors, and later through VRBO/HomeAway and now Airbnb. The no-subletting clauses have been largely ignored in the past, but now Georgia Power has decided to change their policy. Regrettably some leaseholders who may be second home owners in the lakes or who have inherited the properties feel that the only way they can keep them is if they fund their upkeep through short-term letting.
Certainly Georgia Power have done a huge amount to keep the area pristine and very attractive. Their aims appear to be to avoid the region becoming an overcrowded tourist ‘resort’ area. That’s a very laudable policy.
The move against short term rentals, particularly of the peer-to-peer variety like Airbnb is not restricted to the Georgia Lakes. Many cities, resort areas, states and cities across the world have taken against the growing trend. The reasons appear to be many and varied and range from worries of over-tourism, through to the disappearance of affordable accommodation for locals. Cities like Barcelona and Venice have become places where locals, who service the tourist industry, simply can’t afford to live. Even if they could, property owners can get a substantial income by ‘buying to let’ and therefore the stock of property for permanent residents dries up.
In other case, the move against short-term rentals is driven by competitors in the accommodation markets – hotels, property management companies etc., who don’t like the change in the way business is done. You can’t really blame them, but then it may be a case of adapt to changing fashions or die.
Lastly there are are the folks who having moved into an area, perhaps to retire or to buy a second home, rather like the idea of being ‘the last newcomer in the village’, and wish to call an end to further arrivals.
I’m not judging all of these motives as they’re valid reasons, and I can identify with the emotions. However, there are consequences to not thinking through the whole process.
Let’s start off with the Georgia Lakes. These properties have been in the area for many years. The building of the actual houses provided work for the locals in the construction and later maintenance industries. Subsequent expansion brought in stores to service the new residents and as short term visitation – tourism – developed, so did the need for restaurants and all the business that service the transients. If the current leaseholders can’t short-term rent their properties, they may be forced to sell them. That will probably drive down the real estate prices, and with no transient visitors, the jobs that cater to them will also dry up. Tax revenue (from both income and sales tax from visitors) will reduce putting pressure on local communities to fund services, which in turn will increase local taxes and the vicious circle moves on. This is sounding more like an economics class that tourism observations!
The same sort of thought process applies to the over-tourism scenario. Tourism was attracted by the, well, ‘attractiveness’ of the destination. Rather like over-fishing which destroys the habitat and eventually the livelihood of the fisherfolk, badly managed tourism eventually destroys both the destination and the very people who rely on tourism for their jobs.
The only scenarios that I can’t reconcile are the actions of competitors who would rather legislate against changes in process (For example the taxi drivers versus Uber and Lyft in may destinations around the world) and the ‘Last foreigner in the village’ scenario. I have little sympathy for either group.
The rest? Well, it relies on compromise and sensible management from both sides. Regrettably letting the market decide, isn’t really an option. Like any good farmer will tell you, land management and animal husbandry over a long period are the policies that will result in a sustainable model for all concerned. The same is true of tourism.
Enough of this. The dogs need walking and we need to go and spend some money in local stores to stimulate the local economy. It’s a tough old life eh?
This article appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, June 19, 2017
By this time of the year, we are usually in a good position to know what sort of success the tourism industry is having not only locally, but nationally and internationally, as well. At the midpoint of 2017, the state of the tourism market is throwing up all sorts of conflicting results.
Here in Northwest Florida, where only 1 percent of our tourism is currently of international origin, we think that our domestic, drive-in visitors make us immune from trends in other sectors. Strangely what happens in one market does have an effect on the other areas.
First, the good news. Our local hospitality professionals are reporting excellent advance bookings for the summer season and bed tax collections have been up for the first quarter of the year. Important also is that bookings for attractions and experiences have been very strong in the first quarter and advance bookings are ahead of last year.
Visitors to Florida were up by 2.5 percent for the first quarter of the year over 2016 with 3.1 million visitors arriving. Visitors from Canada and UK were down but an increase in domestic visitors more than filled the gap.
Statistics from credit card companies for Northwest Florida show an increase in spending from cards with Canadian, UK and German addresses. Okaloosa County’s DMO (Destination Marketing Organization) feels this can be put down to Canadians preferring our area to central and south Florida, and that new flights into New Orleans from London and Germany may be bringing visitors here.
On the other side of the coin, the strength of the dollar against overseas currencies and other factors may discourage Europeans from heading to U.S. destinations. Some areas of Florida are seeing drops in online inquiries from the UK by as much as 60 percent. Foursquare, a location technology company, says that America’s market share of international leisure tourism declined an average of 11 percent between October 2016 and March 2017. However, the financial attractiveness of traveling to Europe has seen a huge increase in Americans heading east across the Pond with an 80 percent jump in U.S. to UK bookings reported by Expedia, an on-line travel agent.
So, nothing really conclusive, but the trend is currently good for Northwest Florida, which relies on domestic tourists. But with fewer internationals coming to the U.S. and more Americans traveling to Europe, the U.S. destinations that usually welcome overseas guests may start looking at attracting “our” domestic visitors. That’s not a good portent for 2018.
If the proposal to close Brand USA and the cut to Visit Florida’s budget from $100 million to $25 million goes ahead, then the Sunshine State will loose out to California and other domestic and foreign places. Areas like Orlando and south Florida may use their budgets and publicity to try to steal “our” visitors. It’s a distinct possibility.
It’s essential that the Gulf Coast destinations redouble their efforts to keep our exiting visitors and develop new markets as soon as possible. Nothing is definite, and we look set to have a really good 2017, but 2018 … who knows?
Martin Owen is an independent consultant to the tourism industry and owner of Owen Organization in Shalimar. Readers can email questions to martin@owenorganization.com.
It should be noted that since this piece was written, the Florida Legislature have authorized a $75million budget for Visit Florida, albeit with severe restrictions on their ability to operate effectively.
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but I do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into booking.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about reviewing their plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would impact potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed largely from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we’ve seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations, filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago, which you can see here. https://www.facebook.com/OwenOrganization/posts/1318630581555982
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into buying.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would affect potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed pretty much from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for a Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago (https://youtu.be/X35rvweRNsg )
In regions like Northwest Florida, we have to step up our game in attracting new domestic markets, and stay on track with long term plans for International guests. After all, NWFL is The Deep South, known for its charm, good manners and welcoming locals.
Tourism is and always has been at the whim of changes to the global scene. It’s success is due to it’s ability to change direction and adapt. As long as we’re aware of trends and move fast we can still welcome our guests in increasing numbers.
But it’s not all gloom. One country is showing huge increasing interest in visiting the USA. Searches for flights to the USA have surged 60% since January – from Russia!
