Here’s the Conexión Florida ‘Tourism in the Gulf’ article for May.
Why do you go on vacation? Certainly, it is to rest and recharge your batteries. According to a multi-lingual friend of mine a phrase like “All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy” is used in many different cultures, so getting away from your usual routine is certainly a good reason to go on vacation. Here on the Northern Gulf Coast it’s usually assumed that our visitors come for the beach. After all our beaches are beautiful! Ask the tourists and that’s what they’ll probably tell you, but if you delve a little more deeply, the answers become more enlightening.
How many of our guests actually spend all their time on the beach? Relatively few, if truth were told. They come for the food, the shopping, and yes, the experiences. They come for the beach lifestyle certainly, but there’s much more to that than lying on the sand.
Tourists to the Gulf Coast are pretty much three main types: families, millennials (born between 1978 and 2000) and boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). The last two types are the largest traveling groups and they tend to arrive not only during the school vacations, but throughout the year. Both groups are looking for experiences. They want to do things that they can’t do in their day-to-day life, and they want to share that experience on their social media with friends……..
I received a comment recently from a visitor who was asking if there was a ‘coalition of local Hotel/Motels that controlled prices during the summer season’.The gentleman thought that as rates were as low as $120 in the winter season and as high as $600 in the summer it must be a plot to rip off tourists.His suggestion was that such summer prices were beyond the resources of less affluent travelers and that such rates would discourage visitors from out of state.
Naturally I told him that such collusion was illegal and was very much discouraged within the industry. The Florida Restaurant & Lodging Association actually read out an anti-collusion statement before each meeting just to make sure that everyone is aware.
Not only that but to actively jointly raise prices would take away the element of competition that drives the tourism industry. I’m not saying such practices haven’t happened, but it doesn’t seem logical.
In fact I think there is a case here in Northwest Florida, and in other very seasonal destinations, where the low rates of winter are actually subsidized by the higher summer rates.Accommodation providers suffer from a difficulty in employing enough staff for the summer peaks. They don’t want to loose good year round employees by laying them off during the winter so in many cases use the profits generated in the summer to keep everything running during the winter. I think that applies to many restaurants too.
Basic economics would indicate that the law of supply and demand is working well.Winter rates are low to encourage whatever business can be attracted.Summer rates are high because there is a finite amount of stock and a limited amount of time when the majority of tourists can be here – essentially Memorial Day to Labor Day, although with schools breaking later and returning earlier that window is getting shorter.
Ideally our tourist season would be spread out allowing for a greater spread of rates. That would also encourage year round employment and less of a scramble for high season staffing.
All of us in the industry know this.If there is any collusion it’s to try and encourage tourists during the periods outside of the peak summer months. Various attempts have been made to rename this as ‘the best season’. That’s fine as a customer facing branding exercise but within the industry we must call the seasons what they are: low, shoulder, peak and (July 4th week) Super Peak.
Of course by attracting tourists in April, May, September and October we’re in danger of alienating our locals who consider these periods of perfect weather and low traffic as ‘their own’ and reward for putting up with gridlock traffic and no restaurant space in June, July and August. Not to mention Spring Break – so I won’t mention it.
A similar situation exists in Europe where school holidays (vacations) govern package holiday and flight prices.Another case of supply and demand.Airlines and tour companies have been accused of artificially raising prices during the vacations making travel for families beyond affordable.Some parents in the UK have been taking their kids out of school in term time to get lower prices.They are fined by the schools, but just factor the cost of the fines into their vacation costs.
The solution? Many little things I fear, each of which would have a small result but the culmination would be sizable.
Encourage the school systems to stagger their break periods.Some do this, but not enough.
Work with school systems to stop shortening summer breaks.
Go after markets that have different school vacation periods – Canada and Europe for example.UK Schools don’t break until July and don’t go back until September. They also have longer ‘half-term’ breaks in October and November and around Easter.Our weather in those times is perfect for the Northern Europeans.
Expand our marketing to those sectors that aren’t governed by school timetables.Millennials, younger boomers, empty nesters, the list is almost endless.
Actively promote lower rates outside summer. Many do this already.
Strengthen weekend break and short break marketing, out of high season, to places like Atlanta, Birmingham, Tallahassee and new markets thrown up by the likes of Allegiant Air and Southwest.
We also need to have some regional agreement on marketing.Continuing to market as just South Alabama, Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, etc., etc., and ignoring the fact that for some marketing a regional approach is more effective can be counter productive.Some work is being done in this direction and should be applauded and encouraged.
Of course we also have to get the message out to our visitors, like the gentleman who contacted me, that the reason the prices are high in the summer is exactly because we attract so many tourists at those times. Far from being put off they come anyway, and that lets us put up prices, subsidizing the less busy seasons.
As I say, basic economics. …..or perhaps there is a conspiracy that I haven’t been told about!
Here on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, the peak of the summer tourist season is drawing to a close as the schools begin to return for the new academic year. The majority of the summer tourists to the area that stretches from Apalachicola on the Forgotten Coast through to Orange Beach and Gulf Shores in Alabama (actually also further through Mississippi to Louisiana) relies heavily on the family market and draws from the whole of the South East and now up into the mid west. So, now comes the time to reflect on what we did well and what we can improve for 2018.
Of course, the best part of the year is yet to come, as the weather cools slightly and humidity drops, we start to attract both local tourists and the visitors who are not tied to school vacations. A time for festivals and events that draw in an audience that tend to spend more and have an emotional attachment to the Gulf Coast.
How do you reach out to these guests to your business? What’s the secret to getting under their skin? I recently wrote a blog post about the impact that the iPhone and other smart devices have had on the travel, tourism and hospitality industries. In many cases we don’t recognize how things have developed over the past ten years or the major impact changes have had. We’ve seen how the music industry moved through cassettes, CDs and into downloads (possibly back to vinyl too!) over a relatively short period of time but the changes brought about by smart devices have been more rapid and continue to evolve. Fingerprint recognition on phones is now commonplace for unlocking and payment systems but now it’s rumored that Apple will introduce facial recognition on their next iPhone. At the same time Delta Air Lines who have been using electronic boarding passes on flyers phones are now experimenting with identifying passengers with fingerprints and iris scanners.
Does this have an impact on you? If you’re involved in the accommodation industry, how long before the move to door locks that react to smartphones is common place. Major hotel groups are rolling those out and even cruise companies are fitting out their ships with them. This is at a time when many condo owners resist even installing free wi-if for their guests.
How about payment systems take Apple Pay and the Android equivalent? Is that becoming pervasive and does your restaurant/attraction/hotel (insert the appropriate business!) accept it? I was surprised at a fairly high end restaurant recently to be told they didn’t accept American Express cards for payment, let alone any phone based payment systems. That seems to me to be alienating a whole sector of high spending guests.
We are seeing grocery delivery to condos an beach homes taking off with companies like Destin Grocery Girls and now Whole Foods, Fresh Market and Publix offering similar services. This could well have an effect on how many times tourists visit restaurants during their stay. The delivery of very high quality food to your own vacation kitchen, means you don’t have to go out to fight traffic, find parking or restrict alcohol consumption. The tourist may then just go to restaurants for their ‘amazing’ experience.
These are all changes that are happening faster than we care to admit, and need fast reactions from those of us in the industry.
Traffic, tourists and tourism employees.
One of the things that agitates us locals about the summer season is traffic. Believe me it affects the tourists too. The great danger is that the visitors, particularly those coming for the first time may be put off returning if they spend a lot of time stuck in traffic jams. It’s a phenomenon that affects the whole of the Gulf Coast to a lesser or greater extent, although the actual manifestations vary from area to area.
For some destinations traffic issues are pure access. The Saturday snarl-ups at the mid-bay bridge for example, or the lines along 98 around the Navarre bridge. On 30A there are certainly some bottle-necks but the issue there appears to be where to find a parking space. Okaloosa Island and Fort Walton Beach suffer from the bridge with junctions at both ends, while Destin is in grid lock for various reasons from Destin Bridge all through to the county line in the east. The ‘season’ for this is of course from Memorial Day to Labor Day. The rest of the year there is not such an issue. This all stems from our infrastructure which was not planned to cope with the volume of traffic during the peak season. No person or entity could have foreseen such growth when the road system was planned (or happened!) years ago.
The apparently obvious solution is to build more roads, elevated highways or even ban traffic, but none of this makes sense in the short term. Roads take years to plan and authorize, and highways cost upwards of $1 million a mile to build. I’ve been looking at what tourists destinations worldwide are doing to solve such issues in the short term, making best use of the resources they have available, plus how they are planning for 5, 10 and 20 years ahead – giving the time it takes to plan and build infrastructure changes. It’s vital to factor the demographic and attitude changes we can foresee or guess. For example, fewer people are learning to drive and many are not considering car ownership. Ride sharing and acceptance of efficient and pleasant public transport is growing. Autonomous vehicles are coming faster than many are recognizing. Building infrastructure based on current attitudes and technology may be inefficient and frankly redundant. Added to that we need answers now, not in five or ten years time.
Walton County have a parking issue. Those visitors who visit 30A need somewhere to park, so the county has used bed tax to purchase a total of 12.66 acres of land to provide for beach access, parking and a future trolley hub. This seems, to this tourism guy, an eminently sensible move.
I mentioned that Walton County have recognized that parking is their major problem and they have taken steps to address this immediately. The County has spent $24.1 million of bed tax on 12.66 acres of land including 697-feet of beachfront. This will primarily be used for parking but critically also for a future trolley hub.
Visitors, who we should recognize are increasingly familiar with ride sharing (Uber and Lyft), and public transport in their urban home environments, are happy to use trolleys on vacation if those are comfortable, efficient an either free or cheap. They will give up their cars for a more stress free experience. Indeed with the drop in people learning to drive, and in car ownership particularly in urban environments (where most of our visitors originate) they may be attracted by the availability of trolleys. Subsidizing these services may prove cheaper than building roads (at a cost of upwards $1 million per mile) or maintaining them. It’s also something that can be done now, for next season, rather than in 5 or 10 years.
How about 98 through Destin? Well, much of this traffic is visitors driving through the area, and we need to encourage a lot of this to transit through and around the area on I-10. However, a great deal of the volume is getting from accommodations to the beach, the stores, events and restaurants. Not only does this traffic clog the roads but needs parking at either end. Many destinations are solving this issue by providing park-and-ride services. Acquiring parking areas is invariably cheaper than building roads and certainly more immediate. Subsidizing trolley services is again cheaper than building and maintaining roads. Importantly, the trolley service must be attractive, so it must be efficient, pleasant and crucially be a better experience than using your own vehicle.
This means the trolley must have priority over other road users, either by creating bus lanes (possibly only during peak traffic periods) and by making the ride cheaper. Free trolley travel, and charging for parking, except at the park-and-ride stop is a good start and is being used in many destinations across the country and around the world. Providing trolley transport and park-and-ride would also help workers in the tourism and hospitality industries get to their jobs too. They need all the help they can get!
Remember that these concepts can be implemented quickly not over many years. They’re also in use in many other places. They are measures that can be switched on only at peak times, either during particularly heavy traffic hours, days or certain months. They can be flexible in that we can adapt to changing demographics and fashions and we won’t end up covering the whole coast in tarmac!
Our solutions to these challenges need to be radical and inventive. We don’t need to reinvent solutions. Many others have already proved they work.
A further traffic issue we have in the area from Fort Walton Beach through to 30A is how the people who work in the tourism and hospitality industry get to and from work. Comparatively few industry folk actually live in Destin or on 30A. They travel in from Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Niceville and further out. The cost of gas alone makes a dent in their income and their presence on the road increases congestion. Many travel across the Mid Bay Bridge and get no break in the tolls. It makes no sense if these workers have to work for an hour just to pay their Bridge tolls. Surely the Bridge Authority could engineer a 5 day pass for these vital workers as a starting point. Again, cheap or free park and ride using public transport to could not only make our strategic tourism worker’s lives better and more cost effective, but could reduce traffic congestion particularly during high traffic months.
These aren’t socialist ideas or anti-capitalist suggestions. These are sensible ways of maximizing our infrastructure, making the area both better to visit and to live in, and remarkably cost effective. Roads cost $1 million a mile to build and years to plan and implement. Bridges cost even more and take even longer. Public transport, even subsidized, costs less and can be put into place right away or at least by next summer.
We have to take into account as I’ve said before, the changing demographics. Just because people drive here now and have dome for years, doesn’t mean they will continue to do so in the future.
In case you were wondering…..
….what happened to my weekly column in the Northwest Florida Daily News, here’s the scoop. Actually, I hear mutterings of “what column” and “what’s the Daily News?”, but I’ll ignore those for the moment!
Despite being asked to write the Talking Tourism column and being assured that both the newspaper and the readers enjoyed the piece and it was everything that had been asked for, it appears that I mentioned travel and tourism suppliers like Uber, Lyft, Trip Advisor, TripShock, Airbnb etc., but failed to give sufficient coverage to destin.com. destin.com is a website owned by the Daily News and is apparently the source of all tourism information in the area. Mea Culpa. I was referring to sites and companies who actually sold travel and tourism products, as opposed to just collecting tourism related stories.
No matter. The content of Talking Tourism will still be published on owenorganization.com/news, and there will also be a monthly Tourism Topics column in Coastlines, the publication brought to you by The Greater Fort Walton Beach Chamber of Commerce.
Keep your ears and eyes open for some other developments around the Talking Tourism subject over the next few months.
Until next month……
Please follow Owen Organization on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn and 500px and on owenorganization.com.
This article was published in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday May 20. 2017.
A few weeks ago I wrote about the need to train our tourism and hospitality employees, and mentioned the new courses being set up by Northwest Florida State College in addition to those being offered by the University of West Florida. At a recent meeting I sat with folks from our accommodation providers, restaurants and attractions who were discussing the challenges they face. All agreed that the advanced training being provided is absolutely vital to our future as not only a growing tourist destination, but one that was constantly increasing its professionalism, and as a consequence the quality of its tourists. Higher quality equals higher spending.
One of the biggest problems they face, if not the biggest problem, is actually finding those employees. Every spring sees a rash of “Now Hiring” signs along the Emerald Coast. Companies look far and wide to fill the positions that will cater to our tourists throughout the season to come.
This article first appeared in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday, April 16, 2017.
I’ve discussed recently the many changes that are coming to our local tourist business — generational changes, increases in fly-in visitors, a demand for better level of service and value, etc. I think we’re all surprised by the speed of these changes, thinking that it will take years for them to actually affect our daily lives. However, look how fast Uber, Airbnb and similar new products have altered the landscape.
Back at the end of March, British Airways started to fly non-stop to New Orleans from London, bringing four flights a week. Later in May, Condor, the German airline, will have two flights a week from Frankfurt. While British Airways is banking on a mix of business and leisure travelers, Condor is aimed squarely at the vacation market. These two new routes add to the already existent Toronto flights, routing vacationers into the northern Gulf of Mexico region. There may be no immediate effect on Northwest Florida, apparently giving plenty of planning time.
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but I do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into booking.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about reviewing their plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would impact potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed largely from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we’ve seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations, filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago, which you can see here. https://www.facebook.com/OwenOrganization/posts/1318630581555982
No one can underestimate the effect that the 9/11 terrorist attacks had on global tourism. Travel patterns changed across the world. The USA tourism market suffered and not only from the reticence of tourists and business people to get on a plane, but also from the perception of travelers from outside the country that the USA had become unwelcoming. The understandable (to US minds) restrictions that were placed on incoming travelers did nothing to alleviate those feelings. The loss of income to the industry has been estimated at $600 billion. Some in the industry have referred to the subsequent 10 years as the ‘lost decade’. The US tourism industry has only recently recovered.
Recently, things have been looking much better for incoming tourism, however 2017 has the potential to be a disaster.
Firstly the strength of the US Dollar, while wonderful for those of us here who want to travel overseas, is a big problem for inbound tourism. Suddenly it’s expensive for most inbound travelers no matter how attractive our destinations and how welcoming our inhabitants. In fact, currency markets are volatile and are affected by many things – interest rates, global politics to name but two. Perception outside the US is that things are more expensive here than they used to be, but that doesn’t really dampen tourism plans too much. It’s a ‘swings and roundabouts’ thing. While writing this, the Chinese Yen has strengthened against the Dollar making it more attractive for the tourists who are spending more on traveling than any other nation. Who knows what the announcement of a British election, the results of the French election or dozens of other local events will have.
The main drivers of people’s decisions about where they take their vacations in any one year are based on simple human emotions. I can’t tell you the number of fellow Americans who’ve asked me (born a Englishman and a European) if I think it’s safe for them to travel to London following the Westminster Bridge terrorist incident, or if Paris, Amsterdam or Stockholm are dangerous. As a life long traveler my answer is yes, of course it’s safe. You’re more likely to be injured in your own kitchen than involved in a terrorist attack. But that doesn’t satisfy the average US traveler. I may not agree with their rationalization, but do understand it.
So, traveling in the other direction – into the USA – what are the worries of potential leisure travelers?
Without doubt if it’s on the ‘bucket list’ of someone from overseas to visit the Grand Canyon, go shopping in New York, eat in New Orleans or drink wine in Napa Valley then that’s something they will still want to do. They just may not do it right now if their gut instinct is telling them this may not be The Year.
In the dim and distant past we could only judge intentions to travel by looking at actual bookings, or cancellations. The Industry would rely on the buzz from call centers or apocryphal information coming from travel clerks. These days we can see at an instant what people are looking at and what is turning that looking into buying.
Since the beginning of the year we are seeing distinct patterns in what people are looking for and that gives a pretty good indication of what will eventually happen. It does seem that travelers from many destinations are thinking seriously about plans to come to the USA.
Obviously the proposed travel bans that came out early in the year would affect potential travelers from the countries affected directly, and indeed bookings from the Middle East fell by around 30% in February. The strength of the Dollar at the time may also have been a contributing factor.
According to Marriott, the largest hotel chain, bookings from Mexico are down 15%. Given the political rhetoric regarding US/Mexican relations that’s understandable too.
What’s not so understandable, particularly for a great number of US Citizens is why bookings and intention to book, from Canada, Europe and Asia are also way down.
Their perception appears to be that the United States is no longer a welcoming place
The travel bans are not in place and they only affect a limited number of countries, so why would Canadians and Europeans be put off from coming? Why would Chinese or Indian tourists not wish to come?
Again it comes down to perception. Let’s take the UK. I can speak to that nation having been born, grown up and spent most of my adult life there. The US is seen by most Brits as a bastion of democracy with legal system developed pretty much from the English model. The two nations share much history and struggles. They also share a common language – pretty much. However, many Britons are second, third or fourth generation immigrants from counties of the Commonwealth. They have names and religions from those countries and may have visited family traditional homes many times. Their worry is they will be subject to intense vetting, and may be turned back. The news that Mohammad Ali’s son – a US Citizen sharing the name of his US Hero father, has been twice detained in the US while traveling just because of his name and religion, has done the rounds of the UK media. That not unnaturally has an effect.
Although there is a Special Relationship between the US and UK, it’s been rumored that incoming travelers may be asked to hand over their cell phones and social media passwords for examination. Even if that’s not the case, many Britons are thinking that this may not be the year to travel, just to be on the safe side.
From a Florida perspective, we seen on-line enquiries for travel from UK to Florida destinations reduce by between 12% and 60%. Britain is the second largest market (after Canada) for travelers to Florida. Places like Miami, Orlando, St. Pete and Fort Lauderdale are down close to 60%. The phrase ‘bookings are falling off a cliff’ has been used.
What does this mean for a Northwest Florida, a region where international leisure travelers account for only 1% of the total visitors? It would appear to be a potential knock-on effect where destinations that have significant numbers of internationals will try to replace the lost tourists with domestic travelers. The marketing budgets of places like Orlando and Miami not to mention New York, Los Vegas and the whole of California are way in excess of those of Destin or Panama City Beach. To those destinations filling an hotel room with a shorter staying, spending less domestic tourist is better than leaving it empty. They will do anything and everything to entice those travelers away from NWFL.
What to do?
It may be too late for this year. Those internationals have probably decided that 2017 is not the year to Visit USA. Some other destination is going to benefit from their Yen, Rupees, Pounds, Euros, Canadian and Aussie Dollars. But next year it’s all to play for. We have to get the message out that although the USA is prudent in who it admits, the country is still welcoming, friendly and open for business. We have destinations that are incomparable with other countries and a population who are welcoming and friendly. We must stress the emotions shown in a Brand USA video of a few years ago (https://youtu.be/X35rvweRNsg )
In regions like Northwest Florida, we have to step up our game in attracting new domestic markets, and stay on track with long term plans for International guests. After all, NWFL is The Deep South, known for its charm, good manners and welcoming locals.
Tourism is and always has been at the whim of changes to the global scene. It’s success is due to it’s ability to change direction and adapt. As long as we’re aware of trends and move fast we can still welcome our guests in increasing numbers.
But it’s not all gloom. One country is showing huge increasing interest in visiting the USA. Searches for flights to the USA have surged 60% since January – from Russia!
This article was published in the Northwest Florida Daily News on Sunday January 14, 2017.
When I was 16, one of my greatest goals was to learn to drive. I bought an old car to do up when I was 15 and had my first driving lesson the day I became legally eligible. My friends did the same. During my late-teens and twenties (in the UK), my friends and I thought nothing of driving all over Europe for our vacations. Evidently it was the same here in the United States, and that had a particular effect on the Emerald Coast tourism business.
Well over 90 percent of Emerald Coast leisure visitors drive to our piece of paradise, with many loading up the car and driving 10 or 15 hours to visit. It’s been that way for 40 years.
Like everything else in tourism, things are changing. My children live in New Zealand – one is 28, the other 24 – and neither can drive or have any wish to learn. The same thing is happening in the U.S. The Federal Highway Administration reports that every demographic is losing interest in driving. Between 2011 and 2014, two particular age groups – 16-year-olds and those in the 20-24 range – stopped getting driver’s licenses. For 17-year-olds, the percentage of licensed individuals fell from 45 percent to 44.9 percent. Similar reductions happened across all age groups.
Back in 500 BC, tourism wasn’t much as we know it today. However, in Ephesus in what is now Turkey, a gentleman called Heraclitus was pondering, as ancients tended to do. “Change’ he said (in Greek) ‘is the only constant in life’.
We can’t look into the future with any certainty, and no matter how informed or clever we are, there’s always something ready to throw a wrench (or spanner, for my English friends) into the works.
This certainly applies to tourism, of course. We know that nothing will remain the same. The visitors of today will age, and with age comes changes in needs and changes in desires. Possibly also changes in circumstances. Different demographics emerge – see the rise of the Boomers and how as their children grew and left home, their vacation choices changed. The emergence of the Zoomers – Boomers with Zip – who seem to be mirroring (but with more money) the ways of the Millennials. This Millennial group are always touted as having completely different needs to prior generations, but research seems to be proving that generalization wrong, or at least to be too simplistic.
Then there’s the change from where visitors come. On a local level, that shows up when a neighboring state or country experiences a change in fortune (for better or worse) that increases or decreases visitation. On a world wide level the emergence of new economies has major impacts. Look at the enormous increase in world travel from China and India. Of course the ‘wrench in the works’ law comes into play, and the burgeoning Brazilian market (for the USA in general and Florida in particular) has taken a major hit with Brazil’s economic woes. Same applies to Russia. However in the long game, these are probably blips.
The thing is, tourism is increasing and has been for many decades. It’s an almost unstoppable effect as humans are forever inquisitive and of an exploring nature (even if it’s ‘soft’ exploring!).
The chart above (From the US Department of Commerce and National Travel and Tourism Office) shows the continuing rise in tourists to the USA since just 1999. Yes, the ‘wrench’ effect applied following 9/11 in 2001 and again with the global recession of 2008/9, but the overall effect is ever increasing numbers.
The Skift report chart above shows the trend and forecast for international visitors to the USA. Since the post 9/11 dip and the wobble 2007/9 the results and forecast are ever upwards.
The World Travel & Tourism Council (in their Economic Impact 2015 – USA report
http://ow.ly/N9lX3039BTN) show that recent years have seen travel and tourism growing at a faster rate than both the wider economy and other significant factors like automotive and healthcare sectors. Visitors from emerging economies are now a 46% share of international visitors, up from 38% in 2000. The problems in Russia and Brazil will have a slowing effect but falling oil prices (which affect living costs, increases disposable income and lowers air fares) will provide a contrary influence. So, expansion of tourism is predicted to continue at a stronger pace than last year.
Back to Heraclitus. Change is the only constant. We know that the future will not be the same as the past. If we rely on doing the same things as we always have – if we don’t at least look at the possibilities for change, we’re going to fail. We have to reinvent, and we have prepare for change.
‘Destination Think’ interviewed Jan Hutton, the Chief Marketing Officer of Gold Coast Tourism (The Gold Coast is famous and well established tourist region on the east coast of Australia), Jan said:
“Our world is precarious, many legacy industries are crumbling and amid this mayhem, tourism is flourishing. Tourism is a top priority for every country around the world now, as a means to grow revenue, grow job creation, grow industry, grow investment, grow trade – it is the sharp edge that can lead to so much more for a destination. This means that we now need to be agile, relevant and smarter than ever in an incredibly competitive landscape.”
The whole interview can be found here: http://ow.ly/1tJr3039FsS
Getting back to Heraclitus again, we must be preparing for the change to our business that will inevitably arrive. We must look at where our visitors not only traditionally originate and where they are starting to come from, but where they will come from in the future. We must be ready to adapt to the way people will think not only in the near future, but in 5 and 10 years. We may not be completely accurate in our predictions, but we can make pretty reliable guesses. The one thing we will know for certain – things WILL change.
